NFL Divisional Playoffs : NFL playoff picks and analysis

NFL Divisional Weekend Predictions and Las Vegas Lines

NFL Divisional Weekend Picks and Predictions

NFL Playoffs – NFL Divisional Round Vegas Analysis and Facts

Season Stats:

Lock Of Life: 9-5-3 (64.3%) : 22.8% ROI (+3.49 Units)
NFLpick6: 54-43-5 (55.7%) : 6.34% ROI (+6.38 Units)
ATS: 132-109-9 (54.8%) : 4.62% ROI (+11.23 Units)

(As always: HOME team is capitalized, 52.38% is profit, and only 4 picks this week so I’m giving out “Do You Love It?” picks)

Playoff Stats:

Against the spread:
3-1

Do you love it?
1-0

2017 NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend:

Preface: Marcus Mariota, that is the kink. I felt very good about the Chiefs being up 21-3 at halftime. They made Georgia’s defeat look likely.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

That’s just funny
Why Atlanta will win: The age-old rule in NFL playoff sports betting is go with the better QB. Matty Ice is leaps and bounds above Nick Foles. In the playoffs, Matt Ryan’s numbers are great (215-315, 68.25%, 2462 yds, 19 TDs, 7 INTs), but his record is 4-5. Diving deeper into the numbers, Matt Ryan in his last 4 games, is virtually perfect (93-128, 72.7%, 1232 yds, 10 TDs, 0 INTs).  In the Superbowl last year, he was phenomenal (17-23, 73.91%, 2 TDs, 0 INTs).
Fun Fact: 

Why PHILADELPHIA will win: Philly is still extremely talented. Philly had the best rush defense in the regular season (79.2 ypg) and the third-best rush offense (132.2 ypg). It is very concerning that in their last two games they’ve scored 19 combined points. In the final game of the season versus Dallas, the Eagles lost 6-0, gave up 129 rushing yards and only gained 70 (3.9 ypc). The week before at home versus Oakland, they forced five turnovers and won 19-10. They allowed 137 yards rushing, and only gained 78 (3.7 ypc). Philly over the course of the year averaged 4.5 yards per carry, in the last two games that’s down to 3.8.

Fun Fact: Philadelphia is the home first team EVER not to be favored in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

Fun Fact 2.0: LaGarett Blount is 7-1 in the playoffs (Thanks New England).

Do you love it? 

I love it! This is the game. If this game was in Atlanta I think the Falcons would be literally a double-digit favorite, and I would still take them.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Tennessee Titans

bill_belichick_goat
Will the real GOAT, please stand up

Why NEW ENGLAND will win: Tom Brady has played 34 playoff games (28-6) and in the divisional round he is 12-1 in the divisional round. New England opened as a 15 point favorite last year at home versus Houston with semi-starter Brock Osweiler. New England won 34-16. Moral of the story, do not fuck with Bill Belichick.

Bob Kraft, Bill Belichick, and Tom Brady all dispute many aspects of ESPN’s story about their impending doom and have released statements of unity. I find Seth Wickersham’s report purely speculative.  This story actually helps unify the Patriots and gives the top 3 guys to air any actual grievances they may have.

Fact: Tom Brady has been bad in his last four playoff games. Here are the numbers. 120-198, 60.6%, 8 TDs, 5 INTs, 13 sacks allowed. In fairness to Tom, he did win 3 of the four games including the Superbowl in which he threw 62 pass attempts.

 

Why Tennessee will win: If Marcus Mariota throws and catches three touchdowns… Tennessee will still lose.

Fun Fact: I apologize for the longness of this fun fact, but it’s super fun. There have been 20 NFL playoff games where the spread was 13 or more points in the NFL since the merger. The largest spread ever was in the 1994 Superbowl, San Fran was a 19 point favorite versus the Chargers. The 49ers did not cover, winning 49-26. In the 21 games where the spread was 13 or more, the favorite went 12-8-1

Do you love it? 13.5 is a lot of points. My least favorite line of the week.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Zach Morris is even Jealous

Why PITTSBURGH will win: Did you know that Pittsburgh (56)actually had more sacks this year than “Sacksonville”(55). Antonio Brown is back, and it’s playoff time.  It isn’t close and either will be the score.

Fun Fact: Leveon Bell is the all-time NFL leader in total yards per game (129) beating some average running backs like Jim Brown (125.5), Billy Sims (119.6), Barry Sanders (118.9). 24.8

Big Ben threw 5 INTs at home versus Jacksonville in week 5.

Why Jacksonville will win: Jacksonville scored more points per game on offense than Pittsburgh (26.1), than Jacksonville (25.4). Jacksonville’s defense allowed 16.8 ppg to Pitts 19.3 ppg. Jacksonville allowed 3 points last week! The Bills would have pulled it out last week if not for a tipped pick from Tyrod in the 2nd quarter. If Jacksonville wins the turnover battle they have a good chance.

Fun Fact: Blake Bortles had more rushing yards (88) than passing yards (87).

Fun Fact from last week: Jacksonville scored 7 TDs on defense, 1 on a punt return, and 39 on offense. 17% off all of Jacksonville’s TDs didn’t come from their offense.

Do you love it? I like it. Bet the better QB. I cannot see Pittsburgh losing, but their defense is worse, Antonio has been injured and is sick now, but insider snap chat info tells me he’s going to go beast mode.

New Orlean Saints (+5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Why New Orleans will win: The dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and pass catching superstar Alvin Kamara. Is Drew Brees better than Case Keenum? Yes, so we bet the better QB.

Fun Fact: Drew Brees has 12 playoff games experience (7-5). Remaining QBs playoff appearances and records:

  • Case Keenum – 0
  • Nick Foles – 1 (0-1)
  • Marcus Mariota – 1 (1-0)
  • Blake Bortles – 1 (1-0)
  • Matt Ryan – 9 (4-5)
  • Ben Roethlisberger – 20 (13-7)
  • Tom Brady – 34 (25-9)
Sam Bradford is allegedly dressing

Why will MINNESOTA win: They are the best team in the NFL. I’m picking against them in this game because I hate the number, but Minnesota is my Superbowl favorite. Case Keenum is really good and perfect fit for their system. A great team with a good QB wins all the time.

Fun Fact: Tom Brady went 11-3 after starting the season as a back up in 2001 and won a Superbowl. Ben Rothelisburger went 15-1 lost the conference championship to Tom Brady. Kurt Warner won a Superbowl in 1999 after replacing an injured Trent Green. Roger Staubach also won a Superbowl coming off the bench.

Do you love it? NO! Too many points. I like Minnesota to win the game Straight Up. I wouldn’t bet it either way.