I was awful last week and didn’t give it my all. No article and a 6-10 record. Remember, if you beat 53.34%, you will be rich. Bankroll management is key, we are assuming $110 for all single units, all NFLpick6 picks will represent 2 units, the lock of life bets will represent 5 units (LOCKS, DUH).
2018 Season: 21-26-1 (ROI: -14.7%, STRAIGHT CASH HOMIE: -$-$746)
NFLpick6: 9-8-1 (ROI: 1.07, CASH: +$40)
Lock Of Life: 1-2 (ROI: -36.37%, CASH: -$600)
This Week: I love Minn +7 (we will see)
NFL Week 4 – 2018 Picks
Miami Dolphins (+7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The only reason to think New England will win this game is that we keep saying in our minds, it’s New England. Ignore that it’s New England and it’s the 25th ranked offense and 28th ranked defense. I’m off the betting bandwagon, show me something GOAT.
Fun Fact: TOM BRADY IS 151-97-6 (60.89%) against the spread in his career. Lets just not bet this one. Tom Brady is also 6th in the NFL in QBR? (Question mark implies saying that statement in a Canadian way, ey)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1) OVER Houston Texans (NFLpick6)
In a surprising matchup of young 1-5 QBs, I’ll take the better guy. Andrew Luck is back. It is certainly concerning they brought in Jacoby to throw a long hail mary at the end of the game last week, but they looked good on the road against a playoff-bound Philly team. Houston has looked awful, it’s that simple. The line is too small, I like Indy by a TD.
Fun Fact: Andrew Luck is quite possibly Jesus
Cincinnati Bengals (+4) over ATLANTA FALCONS
I am a huge Matt Ryan fan. I’m a huge Atlanta fan, but they’ve lost 6 starters on Defense alone. Cincy is a playoff team and I don’t see Atlanta overcoming. This game is a coin flip, take the points.
Fun Fact: Andy Dalton (68.2) and Matt Ryan (66) are both in the top 10 in QBR in 2018.
Buffalo Bills (+9.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
A REALITY CHECK….STRONG ARM….
I love watching the Bills with Josh Allen. I’ll take a non-gimp with a herculean arm.
Fun Fact: Only 8 running backs in the NFL have more rushing touchdowns than Josh Allen.
DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) OVER Detroit Lions
Detroit has allowed 448 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per carry. They are the worst team in the NFL against the rush. Not even Jason Garrett could mess this game up. RUN THE BALL.
New York Jets (+7.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
In a matchup of the 21st and 20th ranked offenses and the 4th and 8th ranked defenses, I’ll take 7.5 points. These are very close to the same teams. Whichever team protects the ball wins.
Fun Fact: The Jaguars are 8-6 in games were Fornette plays over the last two regular seasons. They are 4-1 in other games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) Over CHICAGO BEARS (NFLpick6)
I do not like Famous Rapist Jameis Winston. The fact that they’re trying to pull Fitzmagic right now is beyond comprehension to me.
Fun Fact: Khalil Mack has 4 sacks, 3 Forced Fumbles, 1 Fumble Recovery, 1 Interception, and a Defensive Touchdown. He also has the Bears at 2-1 (should be 3-0).
TENNESSEE TITANS (+3.5) OVER Philadelphia Eagles
Fun Fact: Tennessee is allowing 16.7 PPG and scoring 16.3.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) over ARIZONA CARDINALS (NFLpick6)
Russell Wilson has actually been awful this year. His QBR of 33.2 is 28th in the NFL. I just think Arizona is awful and their offensive line is worse than awful.
Fun Fact: Sam Bradford is making 16 million for this season. His career earnings are over $129 million for going 34-48-1.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (-2.5) OVER Cleveland Browns
I continue to bet against Hardknocks. I think the Raiders are unlucky
Fun Fact: In both week 2 (95% chance of victory 4th quarter) and week 3 (92% chance of victory in the late 3rd quarter) the Raiders were virtual locks to win 2 and 1.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-10) OVER San Fransico 49ers
I hate the Chargers and I’m picking them.
Fun Fact: I hate everything about the Chargers expect Bosa, who announced this week he will not play before week 8.
New Orleans Saints (-3) over NEW YORK GIANTS (NFLpick6)
Classic trap game after a lucky New Orleans win, but I’m a sucker.
Fun Fact: How good is Drew Brees. Let’s compare some stats. QB A: 144-107, 67.1 COMP%, 71,523 Yds, 496 TDs, 228 INTs vs QB B: 112-105, 60 CMP%, 52,482 Yds, 342 TDs, 229 INTs. QB A is Drew Brees, QB B…the future Hall of Famer Eli Manning.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) OVER Baltimore Ravens (NFLpick6) (LOCK OF LIFE)
This is such good value. They are who we thought they are.
Fun Fact: The Ravens are 29-35 on the Road in the Harbough era.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) over DENVER BRONCOS
Surprisingly Denver only has the 14th highest observed home field advantage.
Fun Fact: Patrick Mahomes has thrown for more TDs in his first 4 games than any QB in NFL history. The kid is beyond a stud.