NFL Week 4 – 2018 Football Picks and Analysis against the line

Donald Trump President NFL

NFL Week 4 – 2018 Football Picks and Analysis against the line

I was awful last week and didn’t give it my all. No article and a 6-10 record. Remember, if you beat 53.34%, you will be rich. Bankroll management is key, we are assuming $110 for all single units, all NFLpick6 picks will represent 2 units, the lock of life bets will represent 5 units (LOCKS, DUH).

2018 Season: 21-26-1 (ROI: -14.7%, STRAIGHT CASH HOMIE: -$-$746)
NFLpick6: 9-8-1 (ROI: 1.07, CASH: +$40)
Lock Of Life: 1-2 (ROI: -36.37%, CASH: -$600)

This Week: I love Minn +7 (we will see)

NFL Week 4 – 2018 Picks

Miami Dolphins (+7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Trouble in New England

The only reason to think New England will win this game is that we keep saying in our minds, it’s New England. Ignore that it’s New England and it’s the 25th ranked offense and 28th ranked defense. I’m off the betting bandwagon, show me something GOAT.

Fun Fact: TOM BRADY IS 151-97-6 (60.89%) against the spread in his career. Lets just not bet this one. Tom Brady is also 6th in the NFL in QBR? (Question mark implies saying that statement in a Canadian way, ey)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1) OVER Houston Texans (NFLpick6)

In a surprising matchup of young 1-5 QBs, I’ll take the better guy. Andrew Luck is back. It is certainly concerning they brought in Jacoby to throw a long hail mary at the end of the game last week, but they looked good on the road against a playoff-bound Philly team. Houston has looked awful, it’s that simple. The line is too small, I like Indy by a TD.

Fun Fact: Andrew Luck is quite possibly Jesus

Cincinnati Bengals (+4) over ATLANTA FALCONS

It’s a long season in Hotlanta

I am a huge Matt Ryan fan. I’m a huge Atlanta fan, but they’ve lost 6 starters on Defense alone. Cincy is a playoff team and I don’t see Atlanta overcoming. This game is a coin flip, take the points.

Fun Fact: Andy Dalton (68.2) and Matt Ryan (66) are both in the top 10 in QBR in 2018.

Buffalo Bills (+9.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

A REALITY CHECK….STRONG ARM….

I love watching the Bills with Josh Allen. I’ll take a non-gimp with a herculean arm.

Fun Fact: Only 8 running backs in the NFL have more rushing touchdowns than Josh Allen.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) OVER Detroit Lions

Zeke is all the Cowboys have left

Detroit has allowed 448 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per carry. They are the worst team in the NFL against the rush. Not even Jason Garrett could mess this game up. RUN THE BALL.

Fun Fact: Ezekiel Elliot is averaging 5.7 yards per rushing attempt. Ezekiel Elliot leads the league in rushing yards.

New York Jets (+7.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Recess?
Or Incrediboy
Or Syndrome

In a matchup of the 21st and 20th ranked offenses and the 4th and 8th ranked defenses, I’ll take 7.5 points. These are very close to the same teams. Whichever team protects the ball wins.

Fun Fact: The Jaguars are 8-6 in games were Fornette plays over the last two regular seasons. They are 4-1 in other games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) Over CHICAGO BEARS (NFLpick6)

If you search Khalil mack 2018 or 2018 highlights only images of Mack as a Raider show up.

I do not like Famous Rapist Jameis Winston. The fact that they’re trying to pull Fitzmagic right now is beyond comprehension to me.

Fun Fact: Khalil Mack has 4 sacks, 3 Forced Fumbles, 1 Fumble Recovery, 1 Interception, and a Defensive Touchdown. He also has the Bears at 2-1 (should be 3-0).

TENNESSEE TITANS (+3.5) OVER Philadelphia Eagles

I have to root for my Dad’s friend
I think that there is a lot of value here. I have no reason or justification, but I can make up the fact that the Titans have beat Jacksonville in JAX, they lost to (3-0) Miami in Miami and beat Houston at home. The Eagles won by 4 at home last week in Philly,  Tennessee doesn’t turn the ball over, the Eagles do.

Fun Fact: Tennessee is allowing 16.7 PPG and scoring 16.3.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) over ARIZONA CARDINALS (NFLpick6)

This guy!

Russell Wilson has actually been awful this year. His QBR of 33.2 is 28th in the NFL. I just think Arizona is awful and their offensive line is worse than awful.

Fun Fact:  Sam Bradford is making 16 million for this season. His career earnings are over $129 million for going 34-48-1.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (-2.5) OVER Cleveland Browns

Grab that Chucky

I continue to bet against Hardknocks. I think the Raiders are unlucky

Fun Fact: In both week 2 (95% chance of victory 4th quarter) and week 3 (92% chance of victory in the late 3rd quarter) the Raiders were virtual locks to win 2 and 1.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-10) OVER San Fransico 49ers

Yeah

I hate the Chargers and I’m picking them.

Fun Fact: I hate everything about the Chargers expect Bosa, who announced this week he will not play before week 8.

New Orleans Saints (-3) over NEW YORK GIANTS (NFLpick6)

Classic trap game after a lucky New Orleans win, but I’m a sucker.

Fun Fact: How good is Drew Brees. Let’s compare some stats. QB A: 144-107, 67.1 COMP%, 71,523 Yds, 496 TDs, 228 INTs vs QB B: 112-105, 60 CMP%, 52,482 Yds, 342 TDs, 229 INTs. QB A is Drew Brees, QB B…the future Hall of Famer Eli Manning.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) OVER Baltimore Ravens (NFLpick6) (LOCK OF LIFE)

Yeah, I went there

This is such good value. They are who we thought they are.

Fun Fact: The Ravens are 29-35 on the Road in the Harbough era.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) over DENVER BRONCOS 

Surprisingly Denver only has the 14th highest observed home field advantage.

Fun Fact: Patrick Mahomes has thrown for more TDs in his first 4 games than any QB in NFL history. The kid is beyond a stud.

NFL Week 2 – 2018 Football Picks and Analysis against the line

NFL Week 2 – 2018 Football Picks and Analysis against the line

We are back in the swing of things and I can explain betting basics and return on investment to everyone. On Tuesday, I will give a comprehensive sports betting explanation, but for now, all you need to know is, if you beat 52.5%, you will be rich. Bankroll management is key, we are assuming $110 for all single units, all NFLpick6 picks will represent 2 units, the lock of life bets will represent 5 units (LOCKS, DUH).

2018 Season: 8-8 (ROI: -4.55%, STRAIGHT CASH HOMIE: -$164.50)
NFLpick6: 4-2 (ROI: 27.3%, CASH: +$360)
Lock Of Life: 1-0 (ROI: 90.91, CASH: $500)

This Week: 0-1

NFL Week 2 – 2018 Picks

Indianapolis Colts (+6) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Stay away! I love Alex Smith and Washington. Six points is a lot of points and I’m a fan rooting for My Boi, Andrew Luck.

Side Note: Andrew Luck acknowledged the secondary shoulder injury that has kept him out the last two years was from a snowboarding accicdent.

Fun Fact: Two of the three best QBs against the spread are matched up. Andrew Luck is an unbelievable, 41-29-1 ATS (58..6%). Alex Smith is 86-64-1 ATS (57.3%). NOTE: THE GOAT, TOM BRADY IS 151-95-6 (61.4%)

ATLANTA FALCONS (-6) OVER Carolina Panthers

I’m coming for you CAM

I think Atlanta is the second best team in the NFC and they have a better QB than Minnesota. This is an important game, I think it will be double digits (Next week we talk concession prices)

Fun Fact: Matt Ryan’s 6 career playoff losses have all come against the future NFL champion!

Minnesota Vikings (PK) over GREEN BAY PACKERS (NFLpick6)

Please, please, please bet this game. Minnesota is clearly the better team at literally every position. They have a healthy QB and team. A great defense. This is easy money.

Fun Fact: Aaron Rodgers (4, $134 million) and Kirk Cousins (3, $84 million) are the two most valuable QBs in the NFL.

BUFFALO BILLS (+7.5) OVER Los Angeles Chargers

A REALITY CHECK….STRONG ARM….INCOMPLETE

Do not bet
Do not watch
Do not talk about this game

Fun Fact: THE BILLS MADE THE PLAYOFFS LAST YEAR AND THE CHARGERS WERE 9-7.

Houston Texans (-3) over TENNESSEE TITANS (NFLpick6)

Coming for you!

Fun Fact: If Mariotta doesn’t play this moves up to a 5 unit play

Kansas City Chiefs (+6) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS (NFLpick6)

Bet all of the monies. Big Ben is awful. No Bell,

I’ve got a good feeling about this. AND HOLY FUCK HOW BIG IS ANDY REID

Fun Fact: Andy Reid is great. He is second among active coaches and 9th all-time in regular season win percentage.

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) over NEW YORK JETS

yeah, think about it

“Bet against the Home betting team”
I like betting against the New Jersey Home teams all year. Wait to bet it, but it’s good.

Fun Fact: THERE IS NOTHING FUN ABOUT THIS GAME

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (NFLpick6)

NO ONE GETS IT Fucking Tampa!

BET ALL THE MONIES. TAMPA BAY IS TRASH

Fun Fact: Philly is good, Tampa Bay has a 0% chance of winning the Superbowl.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-9.5) OVER Cleveland Browns

Hardknocks

Arizona Cardinals (+13) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Detroit Lions (+6) over SAN FRANSICO 49ERS

New England Patriots (-1) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (NFLpick6) (LOCKOFLIFE)

#EASYMONEY #TOMBRADY #GOAT #REALLY #THISCANTBEREALLIFE #THEGAMEISNTINLONDONRIGHT #SOGLADIMNOTINVEGAS #IDBETALLTHEMONIES

Oakland Raiders (+6.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) OVER New York Giants (NFLpick6)

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) over CHICAGO BEARS

NFL 2018- Week 1 Picks and Analysis against the spread

2018 NFL Football Week One Picks and Analysis

Professional Football is back! 2018 got off to a big start with the Supreme Court of the United States overturning a decades-old ban on Sports Betting. As of right now, Nevada, New Jersey, Deleware, Mississippi, and West Virginia all are taking bets for the current NFL season. So spread my words, read my articles, and take that information directly to the bank.

2018: 1-0

NFL Week 1 – 2018 Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over CLEVELAND BROWNS (NFLpick6)

Why is this even a question? Remember I have a theory on the Hard Knocks Public Betting. This is again confirmed by more people betting that the Cleveland Browns (100-1) win the Super Bowl than bet on three playoff teams last year (Kansas City, Jacksonville, Atlanta). Their wind total has ballooned from 4.5 to 6. This my friends, is the Hard Knock Syndrome, don’t fall for it. Bet against the Browns until further notice.

Fun Fact: Bless Em. Jarvis Landry led the league in receptions 116 last year.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6.5) OVER San Fransico 49ers (NFLpick6)

Jimmy GQ is undefeated in life

I have Minnesota as the best team in the NFC. Jimmy GQ is undefeated in San Fransico and they were awful before he got there, but they have no running game. Minnesota is really good, I think. No one like Kurt Cousins, but write it down, they are winning the NFC North and are the best team in a very deep NFC.

Fun Fact: After all the Franchise Tagging that Kurt Cousins went through, over the next three seasons he will be making $28 Million a year compared to Jimmy G’s $27.5. Jimmy G has started seven games, seven (He is 7-0 in the NFL as a starter).

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) OVER Cincinnati Bengals

Vontaze Burfict NFL Rap Sheet

This is pretty much a toss-up. I’m going with a really basic line of stats. The Colts with Andrew Luck with 62% of their games. Without him, they win 39%. I think Burfict being suspended is huge, the guy is a game changer. This is the third straight year, Vontaze has been suspended for week 1.

Fun Fact: Andrew Luck has not played in an NFL game since December of 2016.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

#Doubters

The Baltimore Ravens are 38-36 with Joe Flacco starting since the Super Bowl winning campaign in 2013. Do you wonder why they picked up Lamar Jackson, maybe he’s “elite?” I obviously like Baltimore to win, but Buffalo has a solid defense. I like the points.

Fun Fact: Nathan Peterman threw for five interceptions in his first career start. Baltimore led the league in Interceptions (22) last year.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) over NEW YORK GIANTS (NFLpick6, LockOfLIfe)

SPORTS BETTING…..IN GAME!!!

No one, (including myself, I put a futures bet against Jacksonville) believes in Jacksonville. The Jaguars still have an elite defense and not much has changed in New York. I love this game! I don’t understand this line. Jacksonville hate is real, I love this bet.

Fun Fact: This is the first-ever professional sports team that has betting on site. That is a huge deal #movingtheline

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-9.5) OVER Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFLpick6)

I’m sick of everyone giving him a pass

Last time the Bucs came to New Orleans they lost 30-10 and that was before the Saints defense started creating turnovers and that offense got clicking. Easy game, ignore the big number

Fun Fact: I would bet my life on the Moneyline

NEW ENGLAND (-6) OVER Houston Texans

Tom Brady, is 41, turning 42. WOW

This was the game of the year last year! It was incredible. I love Watson, but Tommy doesn’t lose in New England. Tom Brady’s stat line from last years game, 25-35, 378 YDS, 5 TDs,

Fun Fact: Tom Brady is 196-55 in the regular season. Tom Brady is 12-3 in game 1. WOW.

Tennessee Titans (-1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Playoff team vs Dolphins. Mariotta vs. Tannehill. I’ll take the playoff team.

Fun Fact:

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Chargers are everyones number one team this year. Eve

Fun Fact: The Chiefs have lost 8 straight games to the Chargers. Andy Reid is 8-3 on the road in week 1 in his career. Andy Reid is 27-11 in games with two or more weeks to prepare. Andy Reid is 8-2 against the Chargers since taking over in Kansas City (Note: Two loses came in his first season and were both by 3 points).

Seattle Seahawks (-3) over DENVER BRONCOS

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5) OVER Dallas Cowboys (NFLpick6)

Washington Redskins (+1) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) OVER Chicago Bears

DETROIT LIONS (-6.5) OVER New York Jets

Los Angeles Rams (-4) over OAKLAND RAIDERS (NFLpick6)

 

Fun Fact: The

NFL Divisional Playoffs : NFL playoff picks and analysis

NFL Divisional Weekend Predictions and Las Vegas Lines

NFL Divisional Weekend Picks and Predictions

NFL Playoffs – NFL Divisional Round Vegas Analysis and Facts

Season Stats:

Lock Of Life: 9-5-3 (64.3%) : 22.8% ROI (+3.49 Units)
NFLpick6: 54-43-5 (55.7%) : 6.34% ROI (+6.38 Units)
ATS: 132-109-9 (54.8%) : 4.62% ROI (+11.23 Units)

(As always: HOME team is capitalized, 52.38% is profit, and only 4 picks this week so I’m giving out “Do You Love It?” picks)

Playoff Stats:

Against the spread:
3-1

Do you love it?
1-0

2017 NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend:

Preface: Marcus Mariota, that is the kink. I felt very good about the Chiefs being up 21-3 at halftime. They made Georgia’s defeat look likely.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

That’s just funny
Why Atlanta will win: The age-old rule in NFL playoff sports betting is go with the better QB. Matty Ice is leaps and bounds above Nick Foles. In the playoffs, Matt Ryan’s numbers are great (215-315, 68.25%, 2462 yds, 19 TDs, 7 INTs), but his record is 4-5. Diving deeper into the numbers, Matt Ryan in his last 4 games, is virtually perfect (93-128, 72.7%, 1232 yds, 10 TDs, 0 INTs).  In the Superbowl last year, he was phenomenal (17-23, 73.91%, 2 TDs, 0 INTs).
Fun Fact: 

Why PHILADELPHIA will win: Philly is still extremely talented. Philly had the best rush defense in the regular season (79.2 ypg) and the third-best rush offense (132.2 ypg). It is very concerning that in their last two games they’ve scored 19 combined points. In the final game of the season versus Dallas, the Eagles lost 6-0, gave up 129 rushing yards and only gained 70 (3.9 ypc). The week before at home versus Oakland, they forced five turnovers and won 19-10. They allowed 137 yards rushing, and only gained 78 (3.7 ypc). Philly over the course of the year averaged 4.5 yards per carry, in the last two games that’s down to 3.8.

Fun Fact: Philadelphia is the home first team EVER not to be favored in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

Fun Fact 2.0: LaGarett Blount is 7-1 in the playoffs (Thanks New England).

Do you love it? 

I love it! This is the game. If this game was in Atlanta I think the Falcons would be literally a double-digit favorite, and I would still take them.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Tennessee Titans

bill_belichick_goat
Will the real GOAT, please stand up

Why NEW ENGLAND will win: Tom Brady has played 34 playoff games (28-6) and in the divisional round he is 12-1 in the divisional round. New England opened as a 15 point favorite last year at home versus Houston with semi-starter Brock Osweiler. New England won 34-16. Moral of the story, do not fuck with Bill Belichick.

Bob Kraft, Bill Belichick, and Tom Brady all dispute many aspects of ESPN’s story about their impending doom and have released statements of unity. I find Seth Wickersham’s report purely speculative.  This story actually helps unify the Patriots and gives the top 3 guys to air any actual grievances they may have.

Fact: Tom Brady has been bad in his last four playoff games. Here are the numbers. 120-198, 60.6%, 8 TDs, 5 INTs, 13 sacks allowed. In fairness to Tom, he did win 3 of the four games including the Superbowl in which he threw 62 pass attempts.

 

Why Tennessee will win: If Marcus Mariota throws and catches three touchdowns… Tennessee will still lose.

Fun Fact: I apologize for the longness of this fun fact, but it’s super fun. There have been 20 NFL playoff games where the spread was 13 or more points in the NFL since the merger. The largest spread ever was in the 1994 Superbowl, San Fran was a 19 point favorite versus the Chargers. The 49ers did not cover, winning 49-26. In the 21 games where the spread was 13 or more, the favorite went 12-8-1

Do you love it? 13.5 is a lot of points. My least favorite line of the week.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Zach Morris is even Jealous

Why PITTSBURGH will win: Did you know that Pittsburgh (56)actually had more sacks this year than “Sacksonville”(55). Antonio Brown is back, and it’s playoff time.  It isn’t close and either will be the score.

Fun Fact: Leveon Bell is the all-time NFL leader in total yards per game (129) beating some average running backs like Jim Brown (125.5), Billy Sims (119.6), Barry Sanders (118.9). 24.8

Big Ben threw 5 INTs at home versus Jacksonville in week 5.

Why Jacksonville will win: Jacksonville scored more points per game on offense than Pittsburgh (26.1), than Jacksonville (25.4). Jacksonville’s defense allowed 16.8 ppg to Pitts 19.3 ppg. Jacksonville allowed 3 points last week! The Bills would have pulled it out last week if not for a tipped pick from Tyrod in the 2nd quarter. If Jacksonville wins the turnover battle they have a good chance.

Fun Fact: Blake Bortles had more rushing yards (88) than passing yards (87).

Fun Fact from last week: Jacksonville scored 7 TDs on defense, 1 on a punt return, and 39 on offense. 17% off all of Jacksonville’s TDs didn’t come from their offense.

Do you love it? I like it. Bet the better QB. I cannot see Pittsburgh losing, but their defense is worse, Antonio has been injured and is sick now, but insider snap chat info tells me he’s going to go beast mode.

New Orlean Saints (+5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Why New Orleans will win: The dynamic duo of Mark Ingram and pass catching superstar Alvin Kamara. Is Drew Brees better than Case Keenum? Yes, so we bet the better QB.

Fun Fact: Drew Brees has 12 playoff games experience (7-5). Remaining QBs playoff appearances and records:

  • Case Keenum – 0
  • Nick Foles – 1 (0-1)
  • Marcus Mariota – 1 (1-0)
  • Blake Bortles – 1 (1-0)
  • Matt Ryan – 9 (4-5)
  • Ben Roethlisberger – 20 (13-7)
  • Tom Brady – 34 (25-9)
Sam Bradford is allegedly dressing

Why will MINNESOTA win: They are the best team in the NFL. I’m picking against them in this game because I hate the number, but Minnesota is my Superbowl favorite. Case Keenum is really good and perfect fit for their system. A great team with a good QB wins all the time.

Fun Fact: Tom Brady went 11-3 after starting the season as a back up in 2001 and won a Superbowl. Ben Rothelisburger went 15-1 lost the conference championship to Tom Brady. Kurt Warner won a Superbowl in 1999 after replacing an injured Trent Green. Roger Staubach also won a Superbowl coming off the bench.

Do you love it? NO! Too many points. I like Minnesota to win the game Straight Up. I wouldn’t bet it either way.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions and Las Vegas Lines

2017wildcardweekend

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks and Predictions

NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Vegas Analysis and Facts

Season Stats:

Lock Of Life: 9-5-3 (64.3%) – 22.8% ROI (+3.49 Units)

NFLpick6: 54-43-5 (55.7%) – 6.34% ROI (+6.38 Units)

ATS: 132-109-9 (54.8%) – 4.62% ROI (+11.23 Units)

(As always: HOME team is capitalized, 52.38% is profit, and only 4 picks this week so I’m giving out “Do You Love It?” picks)

2017 Wild Card Weekend:

Preface: Last year, Wild Card Weekend was more like The Easy Home Favorite Excursion. The Packers were 4.5 point favorites over the New York Giants and won 38-13. The Houston Texans were 4 point favorites over Oakland, the Texans 27-14. Seattle was an 8 point favorite over the Lions, the Hawks won 26-6. Big Ben was taking on an injured Ryan Tannehill as a 10 point favorite. The Steelers won 30-12.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-8.5) over Tennessee Titans

Alex Smith is always underrated

Why KC will win: Kansas City seems like the LA Dodgers. They started 5-0 ATS, then went 1-6 ATS in the middle of the season, and have won their last 4. The Chiefs were a respectable 10-6 and appear to be back on track. Adjusted for DVOA, Alex Smith (who had a career year) had the 4th best offense in the league. The Titans were last in the league in yards allowed to receiving RBs, and Kareem Hunt can tote the rock. Kansas City turned the ball over a league-best 11 total times. Andy Reid and the Chiefs beat both the AFC’s and the NFC’s number one seeds (42-27@NE, 27-20 vsPHI).

Fun Fact: Kansas City has the second worst playoff percentage in NFL history (8-15 .348).

Why Tennessee will win: They won’t. The Titans were actually outscored by opponents this season. The Chiefs have the worst run defense in the league, but the Titans RB combo of Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray (out) is bleak. If Derrick Henry goes off and the Titans. Tennessee has been terrible in the statistical land all year but went a respectable 8-7-1 ATS. Tennessee only beat one playoff team in 2017 (Jacksonville). Tennessee had the worst turnover differential of any playoff team (-4) and are outside of the top ten in all major offensive and defensive statistics except for rush yards allowed (4th). The Titans were

Fun Fact: Mike Mularkey is 36-53 as an NFL head coach and has never made the playoffs.

Do you love it? 

I like this game, I give it somewhere around a 7 on the confidence level. It is the second best game to bet on the docket.

Atlanta Falcons (+6) over L.A. RAMS

Matt Ryan is 3-5 in the Playoffs

Why Atlanta will win: Experience. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan (32) is actually older than Rams Head Coach, Sean McVay (31). Atlanta has lost two games this year by more than 6 points (@NE 23-7, @NO 23-13). Atlanta was there last year and Matty Ice is hungry. I like Atlanta to win, but certainly to cover.

Fun Fact: 5 of 6 of Atlanta’s regular season loses against the spread came to playoff teams.

2017 Rams Coaches
Coaching means everything in the NFL

Why Los Angeles will win: They are better. The Rams score the most in the NFL 29.9 ppg, create turnovers (28 takeaways, 5th in NFL, +7) and might be too young and stupid to realize they’re ahead of the curve. They are 1-2 ATS versus NFC playoff teams, but they did beat an NFC South team in New Orleans (26-20) at home in November.

Fun Fact: 3 current #1 overall NFL picks (’16 Jared Goff, ’11 Cam Newton, #’05 Alex Smith) are starting at QB in this years NFL playoffs, and Sam Bradford (’10) would be if he wasn’t made out of literal bread crumbs.

Fun Fact 2.0: The Rams blocked three punts and a field goal in 2017. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams have the 2nd highest rated special teams DVOA in the NFL. The difference results in an estimated 40.6 pts over the course of the year.

Do you love it?

I LOVE IT! This is the game to bet this weekend Take the points, experience, better QB. It’s a lock. Think about taking that juicy money line! Matt LaFleur is the Wild Card in Wild Card weekend!

Buffalo Bills (+8.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Somehow it worked!

Why Buffalo will win: In the playoffs, there is an age-old rule that you should always bet the better QB. Who is that in this game? I have no clue. Tyrod Taylor makes very few mistakes and Jacksonville needs turnovers. In games where Buffalo loses the turnover battle, they were 2-4. Jacksonville only beat one playoff team this year, Pittsburgh, where they were +4 in the turnover battle and had two pick sixes.

Fun Fact: December 30, 1995, was the Bills last playoff win. Jim Kelly was their starting QB.

In 2014 Doug Marone led Buffalo to a 9-7 record and told them he wasn’t returning

Why Jacksonville will win: DEFENSE. How will Buffalo and the most vanilla offense in the NFL score on the best defense in the NFL. Two stats will determine this game, sacks, and turnovers. If Blake Bortles (who was three when Jim Kelly won that playoff game) has no turnovers, the Jags should easily win, but it’s Blake Bortles.

Fun Fact: Jacksonville scored 7 TDs on defense, 1 on a punt return, and 39 on offense. 17% off all of Jacksonville’s TDs didn’t come from their offense.

Do you love it? No! Stay away. This game will be determined by sacks and turnovers. I don’t know how either team is going to score, especially Buffalo. Isn’t it crazy that if Baltimore wins last week, the Ravens would have been favored?

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7) over Carolina Panthers

Harsh

Why Carolina will win: Cam WOW. Cam Newton is the Panthers. He could carry this team to greatness. I don’t see them winning this game, but it’s possible they cover. Let me tell you about Cam’s QBR (48.0), it’s below some absolute studs: Jameis Winston (49.2), Kirk Cousins (52.0), Josh McCown (52.4), Tyrod Taylor (53.1), Marcus Mariota (54.9), and Blake Bortles (55.4)

Fun Fact: Cam Newton is 3-3 in the playoffs (59.8% 245 ypg, 8TD, 7INT). Drew Brees is 6-5 (65.95%, 320ypg, 24TDs, 6INTs)

Drew Brees Jamming the Ice Cube

Why will New Orleans win: Drew Brees. The Saints are really good. They have a top ten defense, two 1500 yard backs, and a 39-year-old QB. Tom Brady, shut up, Drew Brees is quietly winning and playing next level.

Fun Fact: In NFL history teams facing a team for the third time after going 2-0 against them in the regular season are 13-7.

Do you love it? I lust it. This is the best number of any game, but I just never know about Cam. I would bet it, but cautiously.

NFL Week 17 Picks and Predictions

NFL Week 17 Picks and Predictions

NFL PICK 6

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS *NFLpick6
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6) over Cleveland Browns *NFLpick6
New Orleans Saints (-6) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS *NFLpick6
Arizona Cardinals (+8.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS *NFLpick6
LA RAMS (+5.5) over San Fransico 49ers *NFLpick6

 LOCK OF LIFE 

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) over DENVER BRONCOS *NFLpick6 LOL

THE REST

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-9) over Cincinnati Bengals
Green Bay Packers (+7) over DETROIT LIONS
Carolina Panthers (+4) over ATLANTA FALCONS
TENNESSEE TITANS (-1.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-15.5) over NY Jets
Houston Texans (+6) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-12.5) over Chicago Bears
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3) over Dallas Cowboys
LA CHARGERS (-7) over Oakland Raiders

NFL Week 16 – 2017 Picks and Analysis

NFL Week 16 – Vegas Odds, Picks, and Analysis

Fun Facts and commentary on NFL Week 16 access-

This Week:

My Christmas wish came true, and we have no Thursday game for the next two weeks.

Last Week:
ATS: 10-5-1 (66.6%)
NFLpick6: 4-1-1 (80%)
Lock of Life: 1-0 (100%)

Season:
AGS: 117-94-8 (55.5%) 5.86% ROI- Season Value: +14.1 UNITS
NFLpick6: 48-36-1 (57.1%) 9.01% ROI Season Value: +8.39 UNITS
Lock of Life: 8-4-3 (66.6%) 27.3% ROI Season Value: +3.6 UNITS

(As always: HOME team is capitalized, NFLpick6 – denotes one of six games I’m very confident about, and Lock Of Life is my lock of the week) {Note: ATS = Against The Spread, SU =  Straight Up)

With two weeks left in the NFL 2016 season, my NFLpick6 picks are guaranteed above 50%, even if a go 0-12 over the next two weeks. My objective is very hopeful. If I can go 10-2 or better, NFLpick6 will go over 60% on the year in 96 picks, which is awesome. 52.38% is profitability.

Week 16 NFL picks –

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13) over Indianapolis Colts

joeflaccoelite
This guy is still elite! (42.5 QBR, 26th in NFL)

Baltimore is super hot right now. In there last 5 games, they are 4-1 ATS and SU. Indianapolis is 0-5 SU and 1-4 (4 in a row) ATS. What does this mean? Vegas gives you a 13 point spread in a game that should be about nine. The game means a lot to Baltimore and their playoff hopes, 13 is a big number, but the Colts have scored 16.1 pts (31st) per game (12.6 ppg in their last 5).

Fun Fact: After this week Baltimore will be eligible for a quirky common=games tiebreaker (minimum 4 games). Buffalo currently sits in the 6 seed in the AFC, but if both teams win out, Baltimore wins the tiebreaker, but it doesn’t kick in till after they play their fourth common opponent.

Minnesota Vikings (-8.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS *NFLpick6

A-Rod is going back to Statefarm for the offseason

Green Bay has openly declared they have no intention of winning another game this year. The Packers week 15 injury report had four players listed as questionable, and one starter, (CB) Davon House, ended up not playing. Week 16 is a much different story. Rodgers is on the IR, Demetri Goodson (starting CB) is Out, Nick Perry (starting LB) is Doubtful, Devante Adams is Out, and three other starters including Clay Mathes are Questionable and have not practiced all week.

Fun Fact: Case Keenum leads the NFL in QBR among currently playing QBs at 72.0. (Watson 81.8, Wentz 75.1)

Detroit Lions (-3) over Cincinnati Bengals *NFLpick6

This is the face of a franchise!

Detroit can still make the playoffs in a couple different ways, but they have to win out. I like them to win huge.

Fun Fact: Detroit has lost 6 games to teams that are currently playoff bound. (ATL 9-5, CAR 10-4, NO 10-4, PIT 11-2, MIN 12-2, BAL 8-6).

LA Chargers (-6.5) over NEW YORK JETS *NFLpick6

 

Dad of the Year!

 

The Chargers blew it! They had their chance, losing the Kansas City last week blew their chance to become the first team ever to start 0-4 and make the playoffs other than 1992 Chargers.

Fun Fact: The Jets are 6-1 ATS at home and have been underdogs in every game. *Note: They are 0-2 since losing Josh McCown

Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Jeff Fisher Deserves all the Credit

The Titans are a farce. The Titans just moved their number one corner LeShaun Sims on the IR. Their number two CB, Logan Ryan, hasn’t practiced with a severe ankle injury. No music city miracles are coming this year.

Fun Fact: The LA Rams are 9-5 ATS and have the largest margin against the spread beating it by an astounding 9.2 points per game on average. On the road, they are even better at +10.7 points ATS.

CHICAGO BEARS (-6.5) over Cleveland Browns

Mitch Tribiski has the worst QBR (26.7) in the NFL among 32 qualified starters. Deshone Kizer is also terrible ranking 30th (27.5). Cleveland has a negative 25 turnover differential and leads the league in giveaways (36) and also forcing turnovers (11).

Fun Fact: The Browns have lost all six of their away games by 9 or more points (11.7 points per game average).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

UBER drivers beware

I can’t manipulate any stats to justify picking the Bucs. I don’t believe in the Panthers. Carolina is dynamic offensively and has a better than average defense. Famous Jameis is 2-11 SU and ATS. I’m violating the  “Always Bet Against Hard Knocks” rule, in favor of recency bias thinking Carolina is great. Carolina has created seven turnovers and coughed it up once in their last two. I hate that I’m saying this, but I think the Bucs are going to win the game.

Fun Fact: Jameis and Cam Cam are two of four black QBs to be drafted number one overall. They are the only two to ever play against one another in a game.

Atlanta Falcons (+6) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS *NFLpick6

Don’t bet this game. The Falcons have only one loss by more than a touchdown in week 6 when they lost to New England 7-23. The Saints are finally healthy on defense and look like they can beat anyone. The Falcons had three turnovers and were still able to luck box a win two weeks ago in Atlanta.

Fun Fact: The Thursday night game between the Falcons and Saints was the only time Chickfila served the NFL crowds this year.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) over Denver Broncos *NFLpick6

Avoid Recency Bias

Recency Bias – A certain state of mind wherein high values and high likelihoods are overestimated while low values and low likelihoods are underestimated.[5][72]

  • The Broncos won huge in their last two weeks to two terrible teams (NYJ 23-0, No Josh McCown – IND 25-13)
  • Washington barely covered against a much improved Arizona, at home. The previous two weeks Washington lost by a combined 27-68 to desperate Dallas and a great second half LA Chargers team.

Fun Fact: Over the last decade, Washington and Miami tied for the least effective Home Field Advantage (.7 point)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5) over Miami Dolphins

3,738 yards, 67.8 comp %, 25TD, 5 INT

Can everyone take a chill pill on hating Alex Smith. The guy is putting up career highs across the board.

Fun Fact: Miami has an average margin of defeat on the road of -14.1 points.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-11.5) over Buffalo Bills

Trouble in Paradise

The Biggest story all week has gotten no coverage. Why after the biggest win of the year, has it come out that Bill Belichick has banned Tom Brady’s personal trainer “snake oil” salesman Alex Guerrero from the teams plane. Boston media has done a terrible job covering this, and we all must sit and wait to see if the rift stops with a person that Tom Brady specifically credits him with superhuman aging.

Fun Fact: Tom Brady is 13-0 in games he started and finished in Foxborough against Buffalo.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) over SAN FRANSICO 49ERS *NFLpick6 LOL

I declined the gift wrap option, but did personalize the message. #Jaguars

Jacksonville will not win a playoff game, but this is a steal of a game. Jimmy G, looks good, there is no doubt, but I want to see him beat a team that has talent. Jacksonville has talent, no class, but talent.

Fun Fact: Blake Bortles is the best QB in December in the NFL

New York Giants (+3) over ARIZONA

Shouldn’t the Jags fans have sent Blaine Gabbart the trash cans?

The Giants are extremely bad. Arizona has lost in Washington by 5, beat a Tennessee team by 5, got killed by the Rams, and beat Jacksonville in the last four games.

Fun Fact: Blaine Garbage’s QBR is 27.5 and he’s 2-3 as a starter this year.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-5) over Seattle Seahawks

Let the games begin

Dallas is a better team, but Seattle has the better QB. Let the games begin.

Fun Fact: 16 of the 32 NFL starting QBs this week were drafted in the first round. Neither of these two can say that.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) over HOUSTON TEXANS

Thank you @Jaguars fans for sending trash cans to NRG! It inspired me to fill them and an entire truck with toys to turn a negative situation into a blessing for some deserving women and children at @MissionOfYahweh #turningtrashintotreasure #merrychristmas

This week Jaguars fans sent, Jadeveon Clowney trash cans, he crushed the response.

Fun Fact: Since 2014, when Bill O’Brien started coaching, the Texans have had 9 different starting QBs.

Fun Fact 2.0: All of these QBs except for Brandon Weeden, and T.J Yates, Deshaun Watson, and Tom Savage (All 4 have been on the roster in the last 2.5 years) have won at least a game for another team since their Houston stint (Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallet, Bryan Hoyer).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-9) over Oakland Raiders

Sad

The Raiders are trash. Did the Eagles whole Defense tear their ACLs as well? 504 yards of total offense for a Giants offense that has had one game of over 400 yards (and they had OBJ at the time). There is a systemic problem in Oakland.

Fun Fact: The First regular season NFL Christmas Day game was in 1989

Week 15 NFL Picks and Analysis – 2017

Week 15 NFL Picks and Analysis – 2017

This Week:

3-0 Easy weekly slate of favorites (and KC should have been a favorite at home).

Last Week:
ATS: 8-8 (50.0%)
NFLpick6: 4-2 (66.6%)
Lock of Life: 1-0 (100%)

Season:
AGS: 107-89-7 (54.6%) 4.24% ROI- Total Year Value: +8.95 UNITS
NFLpick6: 44-35-3 (55.6%) 6.15% ROI +5.29 UNITS
Lock of Life: 7-4-3 (63.6%) 14.55% ROI +1.78 UNITS

NFL PICK 6

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) over Green Bay Packers *NFLpick6
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-10.5) over Houston Texans *NFLpick6
Tennessee Titans (+2.5) over SAN FRANSICO 49ERS *NFLpick6
Dallas Cowboys (-3) over OAKLAND RAIDERS *NFLpick6
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-1) over LA Rams *NFLpick6

 LOCK OF LIFE 

New England Patriots (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS *NFLpick6 LOL

THE REST

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) over NY GIANTS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-12.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
BUFFALO BILLS (-3.5) over Miami Dolphins
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-16) over NY Jets
Arizona Cardinals (+4) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Baltimore Ravens (-7) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

NFL week 14 – 2017

Week 14 NFLpick6 Predictions and Scores

NFL PICK 6

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS *NFLpick6
LA CHARGERS (-6) over Washingon Redskins *NFLpick6
Tennessee Titans (-3) over ARIZONA CARDINALS *NFLpick6
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) over NY GIANTS *NFLpick6
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks *NFLpick6

 LOCK OF LIFE 

Green Bay Packers (-3) over CLEVELAND BROWNS *NFLpick6 LOL

THE REST

Detroit Lions (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6.5) over Chicago Bears
BUFFALO BILLS (-3) over Indianapolis Colts
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-4) over Oakland Raiders
HOUSTON TEXANS (-2.5) over San Fransico 49ers
NY Jets (-1) over DENVER BRONCOS
LA RAMS (-1) over Philadelphia Eagles
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-4.5) over Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots (-11) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Full post: NFL Week 14 Picks and Analysis

 

Week 13 NFLpick6 Scores and Predictions

Week 13 NFLpick6 Predictions and Scores

NFL PICK 6

TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5) over Houston Texans *NFLpick6
Green Bay (-2.5) over Tampa Bay *NFLpick6
Kansas City (-3.5) over NY JETS *NFLpick6
OAKLAND RAIDERS (-8) over New York Giants *NFLpick6
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+5) over Philadelphia Eagles *NFLpick6

LOCK OF LIFE 

Detroit Lions (-3) over BALTIMORE RAVENS *NFLpick6 LOL

THE REST

San Fransisco (+3.5) over CHICAGO BEARS
Minnesota Vikings (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS
Denver Broncos (-1.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
BUFFALO BILLS (+9) over New England Patriots
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-9.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panthers (+5) over New Orleans Saints
Cleveland Browns (+13.5) over LA CHARGERS
LA Rams (-7) over ARIZONA CARDINALS
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS